Kenneth P. Miller and Quinten Carney | Inland Empire Economic Partnership
California hasn’t been competitive in presidential elections for decades, but still is home to hotly contested congressional races, including two in and around the Inland Empire.
In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump by more than 5 million votes statewide and outpolled him in all but seven congressional districts. Yet, that year Republican House candidates outperformed Trump in California and won 11 seats. In 2022, Republicans won 12 of 52 House seats in the state, many by close margins. These narrow victories in California helped Republicans secure control of Congress.
In an era of partisan polarization and small congressional majorities, the outcomes in California’s competitive districts may again decide who controls Congress next January. Swing districts in the Inland Empire and neighboring areas of Southern California are in places that used to be reliably Republican but are now contested by the two parties. We’ll focus here on two of these districts: the 40th and 41st.
California’s 40th congressional district covers western Orange County and a small portion of southwestern San Bernardino County around Chino Hills. It is represented by two term Republican incumbent Young Kim. In 2020, in the then 39th district, Kim pulled an impressive upset by ousting Democratic incumbent Gil Cisneros, even as Joe Biden carried the district over Donald Trump by nearly 10 points. In 2022, Kim achieved another strong performance, winning election in the newly drawn 40th congressional district by more than 13 points.
This time around, Kim faces Democrat Joe Kerr, a former firefighter captain and labor leader. According to opensecrets.org’s campaign finance records, Kerr had $468,000 on hand as of June 30, 2024, whereas Kim had $3.6 million on hand — nearly eight times more. We note, however, that Politico recently reported Democrats have reserved millions of dollars to target Republican-held seats in the Los Angeles area, which could close the money gap between the two candidates in this race.
Most political forecasts such as Sabato’s Crystal Ball or the Cook Political Report rate the race as “Likely Republican.” Although conditions could change by November, Kim’s history of down-ballot overperformance and her campaign finance lead make it likely she will win reelection even if Harris carries the district on the presidential level.
California’s 41st congressional district, currently represented by longtime Republican incumbent Ken Calvert, is expected to be more competitive. The 41st district stretches from the Coachella Valley west to cities such as Corona and Lake Elsinore in western Riverside County. Calvert has represented portions of Riverside County since 1993. For most of the 2010s, he faced little political opposition in a strongly Republican district. However, the 2021-2022 redistricting cycle pushed him into a newly competitive district that he won by roughly five points in 2022.
In November, Calvert will face Democratic attorney Will Rollins in a rematch of their 2022 contest, which Calvert won by 52.3% to 47.7%. The 2022 contest was one of the closest elections in Calvert’s career, with the 2008 cycle the last time he faced such a competitive race.
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Although Sabato’s Crystal Ball lists this year’s rematch as “Leans Republican,” an internal Rollins campaign poll from early May found him leading Calvert by 45% to 44%, and the Cook Political Report lists the race as a “Toss-up.” As of June 30, Rollins had a larger war chest than Calvert, with $4.8 million on hand compared with Calvert’s $3.6 million. On the other hand, Calvert can take comfort from the fact that in 2020 Donald Trump won the area that now comprises the 41st District by slightly more than one point, giving the incumbent Republican a built-in, albeit narrow, partisan advantage. This contest is likely to be extremely close.
Voter turnout will be critical to the outcomes in these types of districts.
At present, it appears that Democrats’ recent replacement of Joe Biden by Kamala Harris as their presidential nominee could help drive turnout in a way that boosts Kerr, Rollins, and other down ballot Democratic candidates. Recent polls have indicated that Democrats are more eager to turn out and vote with Harris as the party’s standard bearer. By generating more enthusiasm than the Biden campaign, Harris may provide Democratic congressional candidates at least a minor coattail effect.
In the upcoming 119th Congress, like its recent predecessors, small majorities will likely determine the direction of American policy. While not competitive on a presidential level, California still has the chance to determine who controls Congress in January 2025. Any potential majority will run through swing districts such as California’s 40th and 41st.
Kenneth P. Miller: Director, Rose Institute of State and Local Government, Professor, Department of Government, Claremont McKenna College, Inland Empire Economic Council; Quinten Carney: research analyst, Rose Institute of State and Local Government at Claremont McKenna College.
The Inland Empire Economic Partnership’s mission is to help create a regional voice for business and quality of life in Riverside and San Bernardino counties. Its membership includes organizations in the private and public sector.
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